The Importance of Planetary-Scale Motions for Modeling Local Weather Extremes
This article is the second in a series about a project AIR has undertaken to establish a new framework for modeling and managing climate change risk for the coming decades—one rooted in high quality...
View ArticleOur Strategy and Vision
AIR’s President, Bill Churney, shares our vision for climate change modeling, how we’re considering interconnected risks, the latest developments with incorporating AI and machine learning, and more.
View Article2020’s Hurricane Season: Record-Breaking Throughout
The year 2020 will be remembered for many things, not least for its highly active North Atlantic hurricane season.
View ArticleClimate Models in a Catastrophe Modeling Context: Opportunities and Challenges
This article is the fourth in a series about AIR's efforts to build a new generation of catastrophe models capable of providing a global view of all weather-related perils in a manner efficient from a...
View ArticleHow Machine Learning Is Taking Catastrophe Modeling to a New Level
AIR is already exploring and implementing ML-based approaches in a wide range of problems covering the entire spectrum of catastrophe models.
View ArticleNext Generation Financial Modeling for Residential and Small Business Lines
In this article, we discuss the implementation of our new loss accumulation methodologies for residential and small business lines and how we model secondary uncertainty loss distributions, coverage...
View ArticleModeling Fundamentals: Evaluating U.S. Flood Model Loss Output with...
Recently, AIR released a major update to our flagship U.S. hurricane model, along with a substantially updated U.S. inland flood model. Both models incorporate the same new pluvial component that uses...
View ArticleModeling Fundamentals: Defining Events in the AIR U.S. Inland Flood Model
With AIR’s U.S. flood event algorithm—which is fine-tuned to work well for the United States, with consideration and review of the country’s meteorological patterns, topographical features, and flood...
View ArticleNext Generation Modeling: Loss Accumulation
With new claims data from historical catastrophes, AIR has calibrated the financial engine of Touchstone to better measure spatial correlations in loss accumulation
View ArticleAnatomy of a Climate Model
Numerical climate models help us better understand how weather & climate are related and how this relationship changes as Earth's surface temperatures rise.
View ArticleModeling Fundamentals: AIR Industry Exposure Databases
Industry exposure databases are the foundation for modeled loss estimates. Learn about how IEDs are developed and their role in catastrophe modeling
View ArticleTime-Dependent Rupture Probability Forecasting of Large Earthquakes on the...
This article discusses time-dependent rupture probability forecasting of large earthquakes on the Nankai Trough and faults in Japan.
View ArticleA New Framework for Global Climate Simulation, Purpose-Built for the...
For this fifth and penultimate article in our series, we lay out the framework for overcoming those limitations and arriving at a solution purpose-built for the catastrophe modeling community.
View ArticleAfter Tohoku, AIR’s View of Hazard from Megathrust Earthquakes and Insights...
This article is the second of three in our series on managing Japan earthquake risk; it describes how the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake informed our view of hazard from megathrust earthquakes in Japan and how...
View ArticleManaging U.S. Terrorism Risk: A Look Back at the OKC Bombing
In this article, we describe the impacts of a recurrence of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing if it were to happen in today’s built environment using our updated model and with the Terrorism Risk...
View ArticleUsing AIR’s New Modeling Framework to Understand Climate Change Impacts
New model framework coming from AIR can be used to evaluate climate change risk on short- and long-term time horizons.
View ArticleManaging Tsunami Risk in Japan, After Tohoku
This article is the third and final one in our series on managing Japan earthquake risk; it describes our updates to modeling tsunami risk.
View ArticlePreview of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
A number of factors influence Atlantic hurricane activity, including sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and vertical instability. What can we expect for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season?
View ArticleQuantifying Flood Risk in the United States
In this article, we will provide an overview of the U.S. flood insurance landscape, share high-level estimates of the industry loss potential from all sources of flooding based on AIR’s models, and...
View ArticleNext Generation Financial Modeling for Commercial Lines
In this article, we discuss the propagation of uncertainty to commercial lines—loss accumulation and complex (re)insurance structures. In the final article of the series, we will discuss the next...
View Article30th Anniversary of Typhoon Mireille
Mireille was the top loss-causing typhoon in Japan until Jebi and Hagibis. What if it were to recur today? How would climate change impact this storm?
View ArticleAdvancing the Science of Risk Analysis
Jayanta Guin, EVP and Chief Research Officer, explores the motivation behind AIR’s Next Generation Models and what their improved treatment of uncertainty means for extreme event modeling.
View ArticleManaging U.S. Severe Thunderstorm Risk: Part 2, New Hail Vulnerability Framework
In this article, the second of three in our series on managing U.S. severe thunderstorm risk, we discuss our innovative and first-of-its-kind hail vulnerability framework and how our updated model can...
View ArticleModeling African Swine Fever’s Impacts on Livestock in China
On August 3, 2018, a highly contagious and deadly virus called African swine fever, which affects both domestic pigs and wild boars, was first reported in Liaoning Province.
View ArticleManaging U.S. Severe Thunderstorm Risk: Part 1, Reassessing the Hazard with...
This article discusses newly available data, technological advances, and the importance of capturing all severe thunderstorm outbreaks to successfully manage this risk. In addition, we discuss the...
View Article2021: Another Very Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
AIR experts review another highly active hurricane season along the Atlantic coast in 2021.
View ArticleNext Generation Modeling for Direct, Facultative, and Treaty Lines
In the fourth and final installment of Verisk's Next Generation Modeling series, we discuss various aspects of reinsurance loss accumulation with spatial correlation.
View ArticleManaging Crop Hail Insurance Risks in the U.S.—Probabilistic Views of Both...
In this article, we explore the factors that may have contributed to the recent loss experience and discuss how using the Verisk U.S. Crop Hail Model can help you better manage both the hail and wind...
View ArticleModeling Fundamentals: A Novel Approach to Trending Historical Losses
Trending historical losses is not a new concept, but Verisk's approach has an advantage over other normalization methods.
View ArticleWill 2022 Be Another Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season?
After two years in a row of record active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Verisk expert Jeffrey Strong previews the upcoming 2022 season with an expected forecast.
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